[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"skill-openai-bull-bear":3,"mdc--xj228z-key":33,"related-org-openai-bull-bear":806,"related-repo-openai-bull-bear":1011},{"slug":4,"name":4,"fn":5,"description":6,"org":7,"tags":11,"stars":22,"repoUrl":23,"updatedAt":24,"license":25,"forks":26,"topics":27,"repo":28,"sourceUrl":31,"mdContent":32},"bull-bear","generate bull and bear case scenarios","Bull\u002Fbear\u002Fbase case scenario framework for a given company",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},"openai","OpenAI","https:\u002F\u002Fpexgzepcugksgbtrxkhf.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Forg-logos\u002Fopenai.png",[12,16,19],{"name":13,"slug":14,"type":15},"Research","research","tag",{"name":17,"slug":18,"type":15},"Finance","finance",{"name":20,"slug":21,"type":15},"Strategy","strategy",3992,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002Fopenai\u002Fplugins","2026-06-30T19:00:57.102",null,465,[],{"repoUrl":23,"stars":22,"forks":26,"topics":29,"description":30},[],"OpenAI Plugins","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002Fopenai\u002Fplugins\u002Ftree\u002FHEAD\u002Fplugins\u002Fdaloopa\u002Fskills\u002Fbull-bear","---\nname: bull-bear\ndescription: Bull\u002Fbear\u002Fbase case scenario framework for a given company\n---\n\nBuild a bull\u002Fbear\u002Fbase case scenario framework for the company named in the user's request. If no ticker or company is provided, ask for one before proceeding.\n\n**Before starting, read `..\u002Fdata-access.md` for data access methods and `..\u002Fdesign-system.md` for formatting conventions.** Follow the data access detection logic and design system throughout this skill.\n\nFollow these steps:\n\n## 1. Company Lookup\nLook up the company by ticker using `discover_companies`. Capture:\n- `company_id`\n- `latest_calendar_quarter` — anchor for all period calculations below (see `..\u002Fdata-access.md` Section 1.5)\n- `latest_fiscal_quarter`\n- Firm name for report attribution (default: \"Daloopa\") — see `..\u002Fdata-access.md` Section 4.5\n\n## 1b. Current Stock Price\nGet the current stock price using `get_stock_prices` (see `..\u002Fdata-access.md` Section 1.7). Pass `company_id` and `dates` for the 3 most recent calendar days — use the most recent returned close price. This is the anchor for scenario comparison: each scenario's implied value will be compared against this price to show upside\u002Fdownside.\n\n## 2. Historical Financial Baseline\nCalculate 8 quarters backward from `latest_calendar_quarter`. Pull:\n- Revenue\n- Gross Profit \u002F Gross Margin %\n- Operating Income \u002F Operating Margin %\n- EBITDA (if not reported, compute as Operating Income + D&A — label \"(calc.)\")\n- Net Income\n- Diluted EPS\n- Operating Cash Flow\n- CapEx\n- Free Cash Flow (compute as OCF - CapEx — label \"(calc.)\")\n- Segment-level revenue breakdowns\n- Geographic revenue breakdowns\n\nCompute trailing 4-quarter totals for revenue, EBITDA, net income, EPS, and FCF — these are the baseline the scenarios build from.\n\nFlag any one-time items that distort quarters.\n\n## 3. Key Operating KPIs\nFirst, think about what the most important KPIs are for THIS specific company based on its business model and what drives its valuation. For example:\n- **SaaS\u002Fcloud**: ARR, net revenue retention, RPO\u002FcRPO, customers >$100K\n- **Consumer tech**: DAU\u002FMAU, ARPU, engagement metrics, installed base, paid subscribers\n- **E-commerce\u002Fmarketplace**: GMV, take rate, active buyers\u002Fsellers, order frequency\n- **Retail**: same-store sales, store count, average ticket, transactions\n- **Telecom\u002Fmedia**: subscribers, churn, ARPU, content spend\n- **Hardware**: units shipped, ASP, attach rate\n- **Financial services**: AUM, NIM, loan growth, credit quality metrics\n- **Pharma\u002Fbiotech**: pipeline stage, patient starts, scripts, market share\n\nSearch for those specific KPIs by name and pull them. These are the building blocks for bottoms-up scenario math.\n\nAlso pull capital allocation data: share count, buyback amounts, dividends.\n\n## 4. Qualitative Research\nSearch SEC filings\u002Fdocuments across multiple queries. If any search returns empty, try alternative keywords before giving up.\n- **Risk factors**: Try \"risk\", \"uncertainty\", \"challenge\"; fallback to \"adverse\", \"headwind\"\n- **Growth drivers**: Try \"growth\", \"opportunity\", \"expansion\"; fallback to \"momentum\", \"strong demand\"\n- **Competitive dynamics**: Try \"competition\", \"market share\"; fallback to \"competitive\"\n- **Management outlook**: Try \"outlook\", \"guidance\", \"expect\"; fallback to \"anticipate\", \"forward\"\n- **Capital allocation**: Try \"repurchase\", \"dividend\"; fallback to \"buyback\", \"capital return\"\n- **Macro\u002Fregulatory**: Try \"tariff\", \"regulatory\"; fallback to \"geopolitical\", \"compliance\"\n\n## 5. Consensus Positioning (if available)\nIf consensus estimates are available (see `..\u002Fdata-access.md` Section 3), note:\n- Where consensus revenue\u002FEPS sits relative to your base case\n- Whether the market is positioned closer to your bull or bear case\n- Recent estimate revision trends (optimistic vs pessimistic drift)\n\nIf consensus data is not available, skip this section.\n\n## 6. Construct Three Scenarios\n\nFor each scenario, build a **bottoms-up revenue model** showing key segment or product-level assumptions (e.g., units x ASP, subscribers x ARPU, segment growth rates). Don't just state a revenue range — show the math that gets there.\n\n### Bull Case\n- Identify the most favorable realistic trajectory\n- Key assumptions: revenue acceleration, margin expansion, KPI improvement, favorable macro\u002Fcompetitive shifts\n- Quantify using historical highs and growth rates as anchors\n- Show segment-level build: what needs to go right in each business line\n- List specific catalysts that could drive this outcome\n- Consider how capital allocation (buybacks) amplifies EPS upside\n\n### Base Case\n- Extrapolate current trends forward\n- Key assumptions: continuation of recent growth rates, stable margins, steady KPI progression\n- This should be the \"most likely\" scenario grounded in the last 4-8 quarters of data\n- Show segment-level build using current trend rates\n- Reference historical analogs if applicable (e.g., prior product cycles, similar macro environments)\n\n### Bear Case\n- Identify realistic downside risks\n- Key assumptions: revenue deceleration, margin compression, KPI deterioration, competitive\u002Fmacro headwinds\n- Quantify using historical lows, risk factor analysis, and specific cost headwinds from filings (e.g., tariff drag, regulatory impact)\n- Show segment-level build: what breaks in each business line\n- List specific risks that could drive this outcome\n- Consider how capital allocation behavior changes in a downturn (buybacks may accelerate at lower prices)\n\n### Probability Weighting\nDon't default to 25\u002F50\u002F25. Assign probabilities informed by the most recent data points:\n- If recent results are accelerating, weight bull higher\n- If macro headwinds are intensifying, weight bear higher\n- Explain your reasoning for the weighting\n\n**Be honest about which scenario is most likely.** Don't default to a bullish framing or split the difference to seem balanced. If the data suggests the bear case is more probable, say so clearly. If the bull case requires multiple things to go right simultaneously, acknowledge that compounds the risk. The reader needs your honest assessment, not diplomatic equivocation.\n\n## 7. Save Report\nSave to `reports\u002F{TICKER}_bull_bear.html` using the HTML report template from `..\u002Fdesign-system.md`. Write the full analysis as styled HTML with the design system CSS inlined. This is the final deliverable — no intermediate markdown step needed.\n\nThe report should include:\n- Company overview and current state summary\n- Historical financial data table (8 quarters, Daloopa citations, including computed EBITDA\u002FFCF)\n- Trailing 4-quarter totals as the scenario baseline\n- Segment and geographic revenue tables\n- KPI trends table\n- Capital allocation summary (buybacks, dividends, share count)\n- Three scenario sections each with:\n  - Key assumptions (bulleted)\n  - Bottoms-up segment revenue build\n  - Implied revenue\u002Fmargin\u002FEPS trajectory\n  - Implied KPI trajectory\n  - Catalysts \u002F risks specific to that scenario\n- Probability-weighted summary with reasoning\n- Key risk factors and growth drivers from filings (with document citations)\n- Summary comparison table across scenarios\n- Key swing factors section — the 3-5 variables that most determine which scenario plays out\n\nAll financial figures must use Daloopa citation format: `\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdaloopa.com\u002Fsrc\u002F{fundamental_id}\">$X.XX million\u003C\u002Fa>`\n\nTell the user where the HTML report was saved.\n\nHighlight: which scenario you believe is most likely and why, the key swing factors between bull and bear cases, and where you think the market is currently positioned (closer to bull, base, or bear). If the current stock price implies an overly optimistic or pessimistic scenario, flag it.\n",{"data":34,"body":35},{"name":4,"description":6},{"type":36,"children":37},"root",[38,46,74,79,86,99,152,158,193,199,211,269,274,279,285,290,373,378,383,389,394,457,463,475,493,498,504,516,523,556,562,590,596,629,635,640,658,668,674,694,699,785,796,801],{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":41,"children":42},"element","p",{},[43],{"type":44,"value":45},"text","Build a bull\u002Fbear\u002Fbase case scenario framework for the company named in the user's request. If no ticker or company is provided, ask for one before proceeding.",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":47,"children":48},{},[49,72],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":51,"children":52},"strong",{},[53,55,62,64,70],{"type":44,"value":54},"Before starting, read ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":57,"children":59},"code",{"className":58},[],[60],{"type":44,"value":61},"..\u002Fdata-access.md",{"type":44,"value":63}," for data access methods and ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":65,"children":67},{"className":66},[],[68],{"type":44,"value":69},"..\u002Fdesign-system.md",{"type":44,"value":71}," for formatting conventions.",{"type":44,"value":73}," Follow the data access detection logic and design system throughout this skill.",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":75,"children":76},{},[77],{"type":44,"value":78},"Follow these steps:",{"type":39,"tag":80,"props":81,"children":83},"h2",{"id":82},"_1-company-lookup",[84],{"type":44,"value":85},"1. Company Lookup",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":87,"children":88},{},[89,91,97],{"type":44,"value":90},"Look up the company by ticker using ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":92,"children":94},{"className":93},[],[95],{"type":44,"value":96},"discover_companies",{"type":44,"value":98},". Capture:",{"type":39,"tag":100,"props":101,"children":102},"ul",{},[103,113,131,140],{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":105,"children":106},"li",{},[107],{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":108,"children":110},{"className":109},[],[111],{"type":44,"value":112},"company_id",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":114,"children":115},{},[116,122,124,129],{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":117,"children":119},{"className":118},[],[120],{"type":44,"value":121},"latest_calendar_quarter",{"type":44,"value":123}," — anchor for all period calculations below (see ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":125,"children":127},{"className":126},[],[128],{"type":44,"value":61},{"type":44,"value":130}," Section 1.5)",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":132,"children":133},{},[134],{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":135,"children":137},{"className":136},[],[138],{"type":44,"value":139},"latest_fiscal_quarter",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":141,"children":142},{},[143,145,150],{"type":44,"value":144},"Firm name for report attribution (default: \"Daloopa\") — see ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":146,"children":148},{"className":147},[],[149],{"type":44,"value":61},{"type":44,"value":151}," Section 4.5",{"type":39,"tag":80,"props":153,"children":155},{"id":154},"_1b-current-stock-price",[156],{"type":44,"value":157},"1b. Current Stock Price",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":159,"children":160},{},[161,163,169,171,176,178,183,185,191],{"type":44,"value":162},"Get the current stock price using ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":164,"children":166},{"className":165},[],[167],{"type":44,"value":168},"get_stock_prices",{"type":44,"value":170}," (see ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":172,"children":174},{"className":173},[],[175],{"type":44,"value":61},{"type":44,"value":177}," Section 1.7). Pass ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":179,"children":181},{"className":180},[],[182],{"type":44,"value":112},{"type":44,"value":184}," and ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":186,"children":188},{"className":187},[],[189],{"type":44,"value":190},"dates",{"type":44,"value":192}," for the 3 most recent calendar days — use the most recent returned close price. This is the anchor for scenario comparison: each scenario's implied value will be compared against this price to show upside\u002Fdownside.",{"type":39,"tag":80,"props":194,"children":196},{"id":195},"_2-historical-financial-baseline",[197],{"type":44,"value":198},"2. Historical Financial Baseline",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":200,"children":201},{},[202,204,209],{"type":44,"value":203},"Calculate 8 quarters backward from ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":205,"children":207},{"className":206},[],[208],{"type":44,"value":121},{"type":44,"value":210},". Pull:",{"type":39,"tag":100,"props":212,"children":213},{},[214,219,224,229,234,239,244,249,254,259,264],{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":215,"children":216},{},[217],{"type":44,"value":218},"Revenue",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":220,"children":221},{},[222],{"type":44,"value":223},"Gross Profit \u002F Gross Margin %",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":225,"children":226},{},[227],{"type":44,"value":228},"Operating Income \u002F Operating Margin %",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":230,"children":231},{},[232],{"type":44,"value":233},"EBITDA (if not reported, compute as Operating Income + D&A — label \"(calc.)\")",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":235,"children":236},{},[237],{"type":44,"value":238},"Net Income",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":240,"children":241},{},[242],{"type":44,"value":243},"Diluted EPS",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":245,"children":246},{},[247],{"type":44,"value":248},"Operating Cash Flow",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":250,"children":251},{},[252],{"type":44,"value":253},"CapEx",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":255,"children":256},{},[257],{"type":44,"value":258},"Free Cash Flow (compute as OCF - CapEx — label \"(calc.)\")",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":260,"children":261},{},[262],{"type":44,"value":263},"Segment-level revenue breakdowns",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":265,"children":266},{},[267],{"type":44,"value":268},"Geographic revenue breakdowns",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":270,"children":271},{},[272],{"type":44,"value":273},"Compute trailing 4-quarter totals for revenue, EBITDA, net income, EPS, and FCF — these are the baseline the scenarios build from.",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":275,"children":276},{},[277],{"type":44,"value":278},"Flag any one-time items that distort quarters.",{"type":39,"tag":80,"props":280,"children":282},{"id":281},"_3-key-operating-kpis",[283],{"type":44,"value":284},"3. Key Operating KPIs",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":286,"children":287},{},[288],{"type":44,"value":289},"First, think about what the most important KPIs are for THIS specific company based on its business model and what drives its valuation. For example:",{"type":39,"tag":100,"props":291,"children":292},{},[293,303,313,323,333,343,353,363],{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":294,"children":295},{},[296,301],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":297,"children":298},{},[299],{"type":44,"value":300},"SaaS\u002Fcloud",{"type":44,"value":302},": ARR, net revenue retention, RPO\u002FcRPO, customers >$100K",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":304,"children":305},{},[306,311],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":307,"children":308},{},[309],{"type":44,"value":310},"Consumer tech",{"type":44,"value":312},": DAU\u002FMAU, ARPU, engagement metrics, installed base, paid subscribers",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":314,"children":315},{},[316,321],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":317,"children":318},{},[319],{"type":44,"value":320},"E-commerce\u002Fmarketplace",{"type":44,"value":322},": GMV, take rate, active buyers\u002Fsellers, order frequency",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":324,"children":325},{},[326,331],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":327,"children":328},{},[329],{"type":44,"value":330},"Retail",{"type":44,"value":332},": same-store sales, store count, average ticket, transactions",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":334,"children":335},{},[336,341],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":337,"children":338},{},[339],{"type":44,"value":340},"Telecom\u002Fmedia",{"type":44,"value":342},": subscribers, churn, ARPU, content spend",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":344,"children":345},{},[346,351],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":347,"children":348},{},[349],{"type":44,"value":350},"Hardware",{"type":44,"value":352},": units shipped, ASP, attach rate",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":354,"children":355},{},[356,361],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":357,"children":358},{},[359],{"type":44,"value":360},"Financial services",{"type":44,"value":362},": AUM, NIM, loan growth, credit quality metrics",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":364,"children":365},{},[366,371],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":367,"children":368},{},[369],{"type":44,"value":370},"Pharma\u002Fbiotech",{"type":44,"value":372},": pipeline stage, patient starts, scripts, market share",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":374,"children":375},{},[376],{"type":44,"value":377},"Search for those specific KPIs by name and pull them. These are the building blocks for bottoms-up scenario math.",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":379,"children":380},{},[381],{"type":44,"value":382},"Also pull capital allocation data: share count, buyback amounts, dividends.",{"type":39,"tag":80,"props":384,"children":386},{"id":385},"_4-qualitative-research",[387],{"type":44,"value":388},"4. Qualitative Research",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":390,"children":391},{},[392],{"type":44,"value":393},"Search SEC filings\u002Fdocuments across multiple queries. If any search returns empty, try alternative keywords before giving up.",{"type":39,"tag":100,"props":395,"children":396},{},[397,407,417,427,437,447],{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":398,"children":399},{},[400,405],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":401,"children":402},{},[403],{"type":44,"value":404},"Risk factors",{"type":44,"value":406},": Try \"risk\", \"uncertainty\", \"challenge\"; fallback to \"adverse\", \"headwind\"",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":408,"children":409},{},[410,415],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":411,"children":412},{},[413],{"type":44,"value":414},"Growth drivers",{"type":44,"value":416},": Try \"growth\", \"opportunity\", \"expansion\"; fallback to \"momentum\", \"strong demand\"",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":418,"children":419},{},[420,425],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":421,"children":422},{},[423],{"type":44,"value":424},"Competitive dynamics",{"type":44,"value":426},": Try \"competition\", \"market share\"; fallback to \"competitive\"",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":428,"children":429},{},[430,435],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":431,"children":432},{},[433],{"type":44,"value":434},"Management outlook",{"type":44,"value":436},": Try \"outlook\", \"guidance\", \"expect\"; fallback to \"anticipate\", \"forward\"",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":438,"children":439},{},[440,445],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":441,"children":442},{},[443],{"type":44,"value":444},"Capital allocation",{"type":44,"value":446},": Try \"repurchase\", \"dividend\"; fallback to \"buyback\", \"capital return\"",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":448,"children":449},{},[450,455],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":451,"children":452},{},[453],{"type":44,"value":454},"Macro\u002Fregulatory",{"type":44,"value":456},": Try \"tariff\", \"regulatory\"; fallback to \"geopolitical\", \"compliance\"",{"type":39,"tag":80,"props":458,"children":460},{"id":459},"_5-consensus-positioning-if-available",[461],{"type":44,"value":462},"5. Consensus Positioning (if available)",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":464,"children":465},{},[466,468,473],{"type":44,"value":467},"If consensus estimates are available (see ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":469,"children":471},{"className":470},[],[472],{"type":44,"value":61},{"type":44,"value":474}," Section 3), note:",{"type":39,"tag":100,"props":476,"children":477},{},[478,483,488],{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":479,"children":480},{},[481],{"type":44,"value":482},"Where consensus revenue\u002FEPS sits relative to your base case",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":484,"children":485},{},[486],{"type":44,"value":487},"Whether the market is positioned closer to your bull or bear case",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":489,"children":490},{},[491],{"type":44,"value":492},"Recent estimate revision trends (optimistic vs pessimistic drift)",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":494,"children":495},{},[496],{"type":44,"value":497},"If consensus data is not available, skip this section.",{"type":39,"tag":80,"props":499,"children":501},{"id":500},"_6-construct-three-scenarios",[502],{"type":44,"value":503},"6. Construct Three Scenarios",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":505,"children":506},{},[507,509,514],{"type":44,"value":508},"For each scenario, build a ",{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":510,"children":511},{},[512],{"type":44,"value":513},"bottoms-up revenue model",{"type":44,"value":515}," showing key segment or product-level assumptions (e.g., units x ASP, subscribers x ARPU, segment growth rates). Don't just state a revenue range — show the math that gets there.",{"type":39,"tag":517,"props":518,"children":520},"h3",{"id":519},"bull-case",[521],{"type":44,"value":522},"Bull Case",{"type":39,"tag":100,"props":524,"children":525},{},[526,531,536,541,546,551],{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":527,"children":528},{},[529],{"type":44,"value":530},"Identify the most favorable realistic trajectory",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":532,"children":533},{},[534],{"type":44,"value":535},"Key assumptions: revenue acceleration, margin expansion, KPI improvement, favorable macro\u002Fcompetitive shifts",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":537,"children":538},{},[539],{"type":44,"value":540},"Quantify using historical highs and growth rates as anchors",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":542,"children":543},{},[544],{"type":44,"value":545},"Show segment-level build: what needs to go right in each business line",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":547,"children":548},{},[549],{"type":44,"value":550},"List specific catalysts that could drive this outcome",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":552,"children":553},{},[554],{"type":44,"value":555},"Consider how capital allocation (buybacks) amplifies EPS upside",{"type":39,"tag":517,"props":557,"children":559},{"id":558},"base-case",[560],{"type":44,"value":561},"Base Case",{"type":39,"tag":100,"props":563,"children":564},{},[565,570,575,580,585],{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":566,"children":567},{},[568],{"type":44,"value":569},"Extrapolate current trends forward",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":571,"children":572},{},[573],{"type":44,"value":574},"Key assumptions: continuation of recent growth rates, stable margins, steady KPI progression",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":576,"children":577},{},[578],{"type":44,"value":579},"This should be the \"most likely\" scenario grounded in the last 4-8 quarters of data",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":581,"children":582},{},[583],{"type":44,"value":584},"Show segment-level build using current trend rates",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":586,"children":587},{},[588],{"type":44,"value":589},"Reference historical analogs if applicable (e.g., prior product cycles, similar macro environments)",{"type":39,"tag":517,"props":591,"children":593},{"id":592},"bear-case",[594],{"type":44,"value":595},"Bear Case",{"type":39,"tag":100,"props":597,"children":598},{},[599,604,609,614,619,624],{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":600,"children":601},{},[602],{"type":44,"value":603},"Identify realistic downside risks",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":605,"children":606},{},[607],{"type":44,"value":608},"Key assumptions: revenue deceleration, margin compression, KPI deterioration, competitive\u002Fmacro headwinds",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":610,"children":611},{},[612],{"type":44,"value":613},"Quantify using historical lows, risk factor analysis, and specific cost headwinds from filings (e.g., tariff drag, regulatory impact)",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":615,"children":616},{},[617],{"type":44,"value":618},"Show segment-level build: what breaks in each business line",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":620,"children":621},{},[622],{"type":44,"value":623},"List specific risks that could drive this outcome",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":625,"children":626},{},[627],{"type":44,"value":628},"Consider how capital allocation behavior changes in a downturn (buybacks may accelerate at lower prices)",{"type":39,"tag":517,"props":630,"children":632},{"id":631},"probability-weighting",[633],{"type":44,"value":634},"Probability Weighting",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":636,"children":637},{},[638],{"type":44,"value":639},"Don't default to 25\u002F50\u002F25. Assign probabilities informed by the most recent data points:",{"type":39,"tag":100,"props":641,"children":642},{},[643,648,653],{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":644,"children":645},{},[646],{"type":44,"value":647},"If recent results are accelerating, weight bull higher",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":649,"children":650},{},[651],{"type":44,"value":652},"If macro headwinds are intensifying, weight bear higher",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":654,"children":655},{},[656],{"type":44,"value":657},"Explain your reasoning for the weighting",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":659,"children":660},{},[661,666],{"type":39,"tag":50,"props":662,"children":663},{},[664],{"type":44,"value":665},"Be honest about which scenario is most likely.",{"type":44,"value":667}," Don't default to a bullish framing or split the difference to seem balanced. If the data suggests the bear case is more probable, say so clearly. If the bull case requires multiple things to go right simultaneously, acknowledge that compounds the risk. The reader needs your honest assessment, not diplomatic equivocation.",{"type":39,"tag":80,"props":669,"children":671},{"id":670},"_7-save-report",[672],{"type":44,"value":673},"7. Save Report",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":675,"children":676},{},[677,679,685,687,692],{"type":44,"value":678},"Save to ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":680,"children":682},{"className":681},[],[683],{"type":44,"value":684},"reports\u002F{TICKER}_bull_bear.html",{"type":44,"value":686}," using the HTML report template from ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":688,"children":690},{"className":689},[],[691],{"type":44,"value":69},{"type":44,"value":693},". Write the full analysis as styled HTML with the design system CSS inlined. This is the final deliverable — no intermediate markdown step needed.",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":695,"children":696},{},[697],{"type":44,"value":698},"The report should include:",{"type":39,"tag":100,"props":700,"children":701},{},[702,707,712,717,722,727,732,765,770,775,780],{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":703,"children":704},{},[705],{"type":44,"value":706},"Company overview and current state summary",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":708,"children":709},{},[710],{"type":44,"value":711},"Historical financial data table (8 quarters, Daloopa citations, including computed EBITDA\u002FFCF)",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":713,"children":714},{},[715],{"type":44,"value":716},"Trailing 4-quarter totals as the scenario baseline",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":718,"children":719},{},[720],{"type":44,"value":721},"Segment and geographic revenue tables",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":723,"children":724},{},[725],{"type":44,"value":726},"KPI trends table",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":728,"children":729},{},[730],{"type":44,"value":731},"Capital allocation summary (buybacks, dividends, share count)",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":733,"children":734},{},[735,737],{"type":44,"value":736},"Three scenario sections each with:\n",{"type":39,"tag":100,"props":738,"children":739},{},[740,745,750,755,760],{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":741,"children":742},{},[743],{"type":44,"value":744},"Key assumptions (bulleted)",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":746,"children":747},{},[748],{"type":44,"value":749},"Bottoms-up segment revenue build",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":751,"children":752},{},[753],{"type":44,"value":754},"Implied revenue\u002Fmargin\u002FEPS trajectory",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":756,"children":757},{},[758],{"type":44,"value":759},"Implied KPI trajectory",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":761,"children":762},{},[763],{"type":44,"value":764},"Catalysts \u002F risks specific to that scenario",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":766,"children":767},{},[768],{"type":44,"value":769},"Probability-weighted summary with reasoning",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":771,"children":772},{},[773],{"type":44,"value":774},"Key risk factors and growth drivers from filings (with document citations)",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":776,"children":777},{},[778],{"type":44,"value":779},"Summary comparison table across scenarios",{"type":39,"tag":104,"props":781,"children":782},{},[783],{"type":44,"value":784},"Key swing factors section — the 3-5 variables that most determine which scenario plays out",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":786,"children":787},{},[788,790],{"type":44,"value":789},"All financial figures must use Daloopa citation format: ",{"type":39,"tag":56,"props":791,"children":793},{"className":792},[],[794],{"type":44,"value":795},"\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdaloopa.com\u002Fsrc\u002F{fundamental_id}\">$X.XX million\u003C\u002Fa>",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":797,"children":798},{},[799],{"type":44,"value":800},"Tell the user where the HTML report was saved.",{"type":39,"tag":40,"props":802,"children":803},{},[804],{"type":44,"value":805},"Highlight: which scenario you believe is most likely and why, the key swing factors between bull and bear cases, and where you think the market is currently positioned (closer to bull, base, or bear). If the current stock price implies an overly optimistic or pessimistic scenario, flag it.",{"items":807,"total":1010},[808,829,852,869,885,904,921,937,953,967,979,994],{"slug":809,"name":809,"fn":810,"description":811,"org":812,"tags":813,"stars":826,"repoUrl":827,"updatedAt":828},"prior-auth-packet-builder","build healthcare prior authorization packets","Build a concise prior authorization packet from local case files and payer policy docs.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[814,817,820,823],{"name":815,"slug":816,"type":15},"Documents","documents",{"name":818,"slug":819,"type":15},"Healthcare","healthcare",{"name":821,"slug":822,"type":15},"Insurance","insurance",{"name":824,"slug":825,"type":15},"Regulatory Compliance","regulatory-compliance",28169,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002Fopenai\u002Fopenai-agents-python","2026-04-16T05:11:39.180399",{"slug":830,"name":830,"fn":831,"description":832,"org":833,"tags":834,"stars":849,"repoUrl":850,"updatedAt":851},"aspnet-core","build ASP.NET Core web applications","Build, review, refactor, or architect ASP.NET Core web applications using current official guidance for .NET web development. Use when working on Blazor Web Apps, Razor Pages, MVC, Minimal APIs, controller-based Web APIs, SignalR, gRPC, middleware, dependency injection, configuration, authentication, authorization, testing, performance, deployment, or ASP.NET Core upgrades.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[835,838,840,843,846],{"name":836,"slug":837,"type":15},".NET","dotnet",{"name":839,"slug":830,"type":15},"ASP.NET Core",{"name":841,"slug":842,"type":15},"Blazor","blazor",{"name":844,"slug":845,"type":15},"C#","csharp",{"name":847,"slug":848,"type":15},"Web Development","web-development",23787,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002Fopenai\u002Fskills","2026-04-12T05:07:02.819491",{"slug":853,"name":853,"fn":854,"description":855,"org":856,"tags":857,"stars":849,"repoUrl":850,"updatedAt":868},"chatgpt-apps","build ChatGPT Apps SDK applications","Build, scaffold, refactor, and troubleshoot ChatGPT Apps SDK applications that combine an MCP server and widget UI. Use when Codex needs to design tools, register UI resources, wire the MCP Apps bridge or ChatGPT compatibility APIs, apply Apps SDK metadata or CSP or domain settings, or produce a docs-aligned project scaffold. Prefer a docs-first workflow by invoking the openai-docs skill or OpenAI developer docs MCP tools before generating code.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[858,861,864,867],{"name":859,"slug":860,"type":15},"Apps SDK","apps-sdk",{"name":862,"slug":863,"type":15},"ChatGPT","chatgpt",{"name":865,"slug":866,"type":15},"MCP","mcp",{"name":9,"slug":8,"type":15},"2026-04-12T05:07:05.468097",{"slug":870,"name":870,"fn":871,"description":872,"org":873,"tags":874,"stars":849,"repoUrl":850,"updatedAt":884},"cli-creator","build CLIs from API docs","Build a composable CLI for Codex from API docs, an OpenAPI spec, existing curl examples, an SDK, a web app, an admin tool, or a local script. Use when the user wants Codex to create a command-line tool that can run from any repo, expose composable read\u002Fwrite commands, return stable JSON, manage auth, and pair with a companion skill.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[875,878,881],{"name":876,"slug":877,"type":15},"API Development","api-development",{"name":879,"slug":880,"type":15},"CLI","cli",{"name":882,"slug":883,"type":15},"Codex","codex","2026-04-12T05:07:04.132762",{"slug":886,"name":886,"fn":887,"description":888,"org":889,"tags":890,"stars":849,"repoUrl":850,"updatedAt":903},"cloudflare-deploy","deploy projects to Cloudflare","Deploy applications and infrastructure to Cloudflare using Workers, Pages, and related platform services. Use when the user asks to deploy, host, publish, or set up a project on Cloudflare.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[891,894,897,900],{"name":892,"slug":893,"type":15},"Cloudflare","cloudflare",{"name":895,"slug":896,"type":15},"Cloudflare Pages","cloudflare-pages",{"name":898,"slug":899,"type":15},"Cloudflare Workers","cloudflare-workers",{"name":901,"slug":902,"type":15},"Deployment","deployment","2026-04-12T05:07:14.275118",{"slug":905,"name":905,"fn":906,"description":907,"org":908,"tags":909,"stars":849,"repoUrl":850,"updatedAt":920},"define-goal","define and set measurable project goals","Help the user define a concrete, measurable goal before starting work, especially when they ask to use the goal tool, create a goal, set an objective, clarify success criteria, or turn a fuzzy intention into a quantitative outcome. Use this skill for goal creation and goal refinement only; it does not manage durable snapshots, decision logs, or long-running execution artifacts.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[910,913,916,917],{"name":911,"slug":912,"type":15},"Productivity","productivity",{"name":914,"slug":915,"type":15},"Project Management","project-management",{"name":20,"slug":21,"type":15},{"name":918,"slug":919,"type":15},"Task Management","task-management","2026-05-23T06:17:16.870838",{"slug":922,"name":922,"fn":923,"description":924,"org":925,"tags":926,"stars":849,"repoUrl":850,"updatedAt":936},"figma","translate Figma designs into code","Use the Figma MCP server to fetch design context, screenshots, variables, and assets from Figma, and to translate Figma nodes into production code. Trigger when a task involves Figma URLs, node IDs, design-to-code implementation, or Figma MCP setup and troubleshooting.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[927,930,932,935],{"name":928,"slug":929,"type":15},"Design","design",{"name":931,"slug":922,"type":15},"Figma",{"name":933,"slug":934,"type":15},"Frontend","frontend",{"name":865,"slug":866,"type":15},"2026-04-12T05:06:47.939943",{"slug":938,"name":938,"fn":939,"description":940,"org":941,"tags":942,"stars":849,"repoUrl":850,"updatedAt":952},"figma-code-connect-components","connect Figma designs to code components","Connects Figma design components to code components using Code Connect mapping tools. Use when user says \"code connect\", \"connect this component to code\", \"map this component\", \"link component to code\", \"create code connect mapping\", or wants to establish mappings between Figma designs and code implementations. For canvas writes via `use_figma`, use `figma-use`.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[943,944,947,948,949],{"name":928,"slug":929,"type":15},{"name":945,"slug":946,"type":15},"Design System","design-system",{"name":931,"slug":922,"type":15},{"name":933,"slug":934,"type":15},{"name":950,"slug":951,"type":15},"UI Components","ui-components","2026-05-10T05:59:52.971881",{"slug":954,"name":954,"fn":955,"description":956,"org":957,"tags":958,"stars":849,"repoUrl":850,"updatedAt":966},"figma-create-design-system-rules","generate design system rules from Figma","Generates custom design system rules for the user's codebase. Use when user says \"create design system rules\", \"generate rules for my project\", \"set up design rules\", \"customize design system guidelines\", or wants to establish project-specific conventions for Figma-to-code workflows. Requires Figma MCP server connection.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[959,960,961,964,965],{"name":928,"slug":929,"type":15},{"name":945,"slug":946,"type":15},{"name":962,"slug":963,"type":15},"Documentation","documentation",{"name":931,"slug":922,"type":15},{"name":933,"slug":934,"type":15},"2026-05-16T06:07:47.821474",{"slug":968,"name":968,"fn":969,"description":970,"org":971,"tags":972,"stars":849,"repoUrl":850,"updatedAt":978},"figma-implement-design","translate Figma designs into application code","Translates Figma designs into production-ready application code with 1:1 visual fidelity. Use when implementing UI code from Figma files, when user mentions \"implement design\", \"generate code\", \"implement component\", provides Figma URLs, or asks to build components matching Figma specs. For Figma canvas writes via `use_figma`, use `figma-use`.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[973,974,975,976,977],{"name":928,"slug":929,"type":15},{"name":931,"slug":922,"type":15},{"name":933,"slug":934,"type":15},{"name":950,"slug":951,"type":15},{"name":847,"slug":848,"type":15},"2026-05-16T06:07:40.583615",{"slug":980,"name":980,"fn":981,"description":982,"org":983,"tags":984,"stars":849,"repoUrl":850,"updatedAt":993},"hatch-pet","create animated pets for Codex","Create, repair, validate, visually QA, and package Codex-compatible animated pets and pet spritesheets from character art, generated images, company or prospect brand cues, or visual references. Use when a user wants a lightweight-worker Codex pet workflow, a non-pixel custom pet style, a prospect or company mascot pet, or a full 8x9 animated pet atlas with transparent unused cells, QA contact sheets, and pet.json packaging. This skill composes the installed $imagegen system skill for visual generation and uses bundled scripts for deterministic spritesheet assembly.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[985,988,989,992],{"name":986,"slug":987,"type":15},"Animation","animation",{"name":882,"slug":883,"type":15},{"name":990,"slug":991,"type":15},"Creative","creative",{"name":928,"slug":929,"type":15},"2026-05-02T05:31:48.48485",{"slug":995,"name":995,"fn":996,"description":997,"org":998,"tags":999,"stars":849,"repoUrl":850,"updatedAt":1009},"imagegen","generate and edit raster images","Generate or edit raster images when the task benefits from AI-created bitmap visuals such as photos, illustrations, textures, sprites, mockups, or transparent-background cutouts. Use when Codex should create a brand-new image, transform an existing image, or derive visual variants from references, and the output should be a bitmap asset rather than repo-native code or vector. Do not use when the task is better handled by editing existing SVG\u002Fvector\u002Fcode-native assets, extending an established icon or logo system, or building the visual directly in HTML\u002FCSS\u002Fcanvas.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[1000,1001,1002,1005,1008],{"name":990,"slug":991,"type":15},{"name":928,"slug":929,"type":15},{"name":1003,"slug":1004,"type":15},"Image Generation","image-generation",{"name":1006,"slug":1007,"type":15},"Images","images",{"name":9,"slug":8,"type":15},"2026-05-15T06:23:24.312127",675,{"items":1012,"total":1125},[1013,1029,1045,1057,1075,1093,1113],{"slug":1014,"name":1014,"fn":1015,"description":1016,"org":1017,"tags":1018,"stars":22,"repoUrl":23,"updatedAt":24},"accessibility-and-inclusive-visualization","make data visualizations accessible","Make data visualizations accessible and inclusive. Use when the user needs chart or diagram accessibility guidance, text alternatives for complex visuals, color and contrast review, keyboard support, reduced-motion behavior for animation or parallax, or an accessibility QA workflow for exported figures, UML-like diagrams, and dashboards.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[1019,1022,1025,1028],{"name":1020,"slug":1021,"type":15},"Accessibility","accessibility",{"name":1023,"slug":1024,"type":15},"Charts","charts",{"name":1026,"slug":1027,"type":15},"Data Visualization","data-visualization",{"name":928,"slug":929,"type":15},{"slug":1030,"name":1030,"fn":1031,"description":1032,"org":1033,"tags":1034,"stars":22,"repoUrl":23,"updatedAt":1044},"agent-browser","automate browser interactions for agents","Browser automation CLI for AI agents. Use when the user needs to interact with websites, verify dev server output, test web apps, navigate pages, fill forms, click buttons, take screenshots, extract data, or automate any browser task. Also triggers when a dev server starts so you can verify it visually.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[1035,1038,1041],{"name":1036,"slug":1037,"type":15},"Agents","agents",{"name":1039,"slug":1040,"type":15},"Browser Automation","browser-automation",{"name":1042,"slug":1043,"type":15},"Testing","testing","2026-04-06T18:41:03.44016",{"slug":1046,"name":1046,"fn":1047,"description":1048,"org":1049,"tags":1050,"stars":22,"repoUrl":23,"updatedAt":1056},"agent-browser-verify","verify dev server output with automated browser","Automated browser verification for dev servers. Triggers when a dev server starts to run a visual gut-check with agent-browser — verifies the page loads, checks for console errors, validates key UI elements, and reports pass\u002Ffail before continuing.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[1051,1052,1055],{"name":1039,"slug":1040,"type":15},{"name":1053,"slug":1054,"type":15},"Local Development","local-development",{"name":1042,"slug":1043,"type":15},"2026-04-06T18:41:17.526867",{"slug":1058,"name":1058,"fn":1059,"description":1060,"org":1061,"tags":1062,"stars":22,"repoUrl":23,"updatedAt":1074},"agents-sdk","build AI agents on Cloudflare Workers","Build AI agents on Cloudflare Workers using the Agents SDK. Load when creating stateful agents, durable workflows, real-time WebSocket apps, scheduled tasks, MCP servers, or chat applications. Covers Agent class, state management, callable RPC, Workflows integration, and React hooks. Biases towards retrieval from Cloudflare docs over pre-trained knowledge.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[1063,1064,1065,1068,1071],{"name":1036,"slug":1037,"type":15},{"name":898,"slug":899,"type":15},{"name":1066,"slug":1067,"type":15},"SDK","sdk",{"name":1069,"slug":1070,"type":15},"Serverless","serverless",{"name":1072,"slug":1073,"type":15},"WebSockets","websockets","2026-04-06T18:39:51.717063",{"slug":1076,"name":1076,"fn":1077,"description":1078,"org":1079,"tags":1080,"stars":22,"repoUrl":23,"updatedAt":1092},"ai-elements","build chat UIs with AI Elements","AI Elements component library guidance — pre-built React components for AI interfaces built on shadcn\u002Fui. Use when building chat UIs, message displays, tool call rendering, streaming responses, reasoning panels, or any AI-native interface with the AI SDK.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[1081,1082,1085,1088,1089],{"name":933,"slug":934,"type":15},{"name":1083,"slug":1084,"type":15},"React","react",{"name":1086,"slug":1087,"type":15},"shadcn\u002Fui","shadcn-ui",{"name":950,"slug":951,"type":15},{"name":1090,"slug":1091,"type":15},"Vercel","vercel","2026-04-06T18:40:59.619419",{"slug":1094,"name":1094,"fn":1095,"description":1096,"org":1097,"tags":1098,"stars":22,"repoUrl":23,"updatedAt":1112},"ai-gateway","configure Vercel AI Gateway","Vercel AI Gateway expert guidance. Use when configuring model routing, provider failover, cost tracking, or managing multiple AI providers through a unified API.",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[1099,1102,1105,1108,1111],{"name":1100,"slug":1101,"type":15},"AI Infrastructure","ai-infrastructure",{"name":1103,"slug":1104,"type":15},"Cost Optimization","cost-optimization",{"name":1106,"slug":1107,"type":15},"LLM","llm",{"name":1109,"slug":1110,"type":15},"Performance","performance",{"name":1090,"slug":1091,"type":15},"2026-04-06T18:40:44.377464",{"slug":1114,"name":1114,"fn":1115,"description":1116,"org":1117,"tags":1118,"stars":22,"repoUrl":23,"updatedAt":1124},"ai-generation-persistence","implement persistence patterns for AI generations","AI generation persistence patterns — unique IDs, addressable URLs, database storage, and cost tracking for every LLM generation",{"slug":8,"name":9,"logoUrl":10,"githubOrg":8},[1119,1120,1123],{"name":1103,"slug":1104,"type":15},{"name":1121,"slug":1122,"type":15},"Database","database",{"name":1106,"slug":1107,"type":15},"2026-04-06T18:41:08.513425",600]